Sunday pre-game, 9/4/11

Last week I couldn't even wager a guess as to whether gold would stay within its new purple trend channel or move past it in either direction. So, what happened? On Monday, gold just touched the top purple line. Then, it touched the line again each of the next two days before stalling below it on Thursday, such that by Friday, I was expecting a test of the lower trend line (see magnified chart below). So I was quite surprised to see the big jump on Friday morning. I expect a test of the top trend line this week. If it holds, we could see the price buzzsaw quickly to $2000. However, keep in mind Obama is giving a "jobs speech" this week, so as so often occurs with these events, gold might mysteriously plummet.

I find it quite remarkable that the "line of best fit" to the 144-day and the 200-day moving averages have essentially the same exact slope, and the purple dotted trend lines I've drawn with that slope capture price movement so well over such a long period of time.

Also remarkably, I extended a parallel trend line up an equal amount on the weekly chart we've been looking at (e.g. with the "thin blue line" which, when passed, accurately foretold the recent explosion), and voila, a perfect line of resistance. Here, gold certainly looks like it might be rolling over, so I'm going to be cautious this week. If we can close above $1890, though, that would make this chart look more bullish.

With silver, we broke past the midline (grey, dotted) of the trend channel I'd drawn last week. As long as that midline can hold, and I'm betting it will, you gotta believe we're eventually on our way to the top trend line at $46-47, where we can expect a strong sell-off.

And here's the weekly chart. I drew these trend lines back in June, and frankly, they look better by the week. Could we be going up to the upper grey line by next spring?

1 comment:

Louis Cypher said...

Sweet. Not to go off track again.
I've looked at Pisani handling that bar a couple of times and he does seem to heft it pretty easily. Now I have never had the pleasure of hefting a Gold bar but I have watched several gold heist movies and those things look pretty heavy. It's a low quality video but there doesn't seem to be that much pressure on his fingers when he moves it. Which leads me to the next question... Does Bob Pisani abuse steroids? Are we we going to see some 'roid rage on CNBC?