Currency wars and game theory time.

Currency wars always, always end badly. Especially for the smaller nations.




Whether it is pre Euro or post Euro it always ends badly and the consumer is the one who usually picks up the tab because the things we need cost more and things we don't need cost less.
That being said our glorious leaders have put a shot across the bow of the Chinese. I don't think they are actually being serious about it. They are simply telling the Chinese "this is our game and don't forget it or we will take our ball and go home". They want the Chinese to shut up about getting our fiscal house in order. They want the Chinese to loosen credit domestically. They want the Chinese to keep buying our bonds. If not then we will allow every manufacturer in the USA to theoretically able  to lodge a complaint against any imported good on the basis of unfair trade because of "misaligned" currency.

In recent weeks we have seen the commodity index across the board decimated. The shocker was copper. Long being seen as the ultimate indicator of health for the world economy. The recent economic numbers have not been horrendous so why the beat down in Copper? According to Metal Augmenter the guys in China who have been stock piling Copper are being forced to liquidate their warehoused copper below market value because of cash flow problems. Credit is so tight in China that loan sharks are competing with banks on a larger and larger scale. Not good for China and not good for the World.

IMHO the commodity index is not the measure of world economic health right now. We should be looking at a blunter tool like the Baltic Dry Index which has been showing some signs of life recently.
It's a tough one to get a handle on though as there were a lot of ships in the build pipeline before the Credit Crunch Crash of 2008. Which is part of the explanation of why the Index has been so horrible since 2008 as we over built.  However, unless there have been a bunch of ships recycled for scrap or moth balled we can assume that things are looking up if only on a dead cat bounce. If that Bill mentioned above is passed short the hell out of the index.

So how will this end? In a word Diplomatically.
China is in no position to self fund it's expansion. They are creating an internal atmosphere of risk off and people are hunkering down when they should be getting their people to consume. They need to turn that ship and fast. Unlike us, they can turn the ship fast because there is no vote on the matter. The Party says jump and they jump. There is no vote, posturing for cameras, baby kissing or lobbyist permission required.
We need to keep abusing our position of reserve currency in order to keep going. So the bill gets shelved if the Chinese play ball and we go QE all over again. If there is a short term plan B or C I can't see it.

So my advice is patience. Just a little more patience because either we are all going down in flames or the mother of all buying opportunities is just around the corner.

Edit: I watched a little bit of the Bernanke stuff and the man looks like hell. Maybe is is getting over the rotten cold that has been going around or maybe he is just completely stressed out. He seemed nervous before every question was asked and then once asked he was comfortable. In other words no one was asking the questions he was most worried about. There was even one idiot (I) Sanders, I think it was, who asked him if the Fed could not lend directly to the small business community. To Bernanke's credit he didn't look at him as if he was retarded, burst out laughing, etc but patiently answered the stupid question.
In any case no one is begging him for QE3 yet and he claimed success for QE2 etc. in that it didn't raise inflation and fought off deflation.  Measured like that I guess it was a whopping success. He is a smart feller as he out politiced the politicians from what I saw.

5 comments:

GM Jenkins said...

Fine analysis, Louis.

And how 'bout that S&P 500 flying back over 1100 in the closing minutes! USA! USA!

Louis Cypher said...

Yeah, some rubbish announcement out of Europe to fleece the shorts. I am getting bored. Just fast forward through all the crap and do a QE3 already.

Anonymous said...

Nice post, Louis.

But let's not forget that if we've 'learned' anything over the last few weeks, it's that gold is money in ways that gold investors don't appreciate.

I say this only half sarcastically. Although the meme of 'gold as currency' (and silver) is pumped constantly round the net, I don't think any real consideration was given to the fact that central banks intervene swiftly, effectively and dramatically to control currencies when national interests are at stake(Swiss Franc or Yen being recent cases in point) So why would/should we privilege 'gold as money' from coordinated central bank intervention?

Here's the really hard thought experiment for gold bugs: if the Swiss (or Japanese) need to act quickly to save their economy, and prevent meltdown, and do so through internationally coordinated currency manipulation, is this really a stupid thing for them to do? Is it even immoral? Maybe for uber-free marketeers, but precisely this action saved the UK economy in 2008. So if devaluing gold (not, actually for devaluing gold's sake, but as a side effect of other interventions) could prevent meltdown, then surely that's not a stupid (or criminal) thing to do either.

I write this as someone who's just lost a shed load on gold and silver, so go easy on the hostile reactions. It's just that the cheer-leading of economic collapse (conducted by some PM investors) always leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I suppose it boils down to this. If the Western economies could (and I stress the 'could') be saved by planned interventions that wipes out gold investors (of which I am/was one), then I would say that this is the right thing to do. Chaos always trumps poverty in the fear stakes...

[takes cover]

Warren James said...

@Jeanne, I agree with your sentiment. The only issue is they are having their cake and eating it as well - i.e. they are milking our wealth whilst achieving their goals of stability. Neat trick really - it's like causing a problem and then charging someone consultancy fees to go in and fix it.

I wish Freegold would come about so that the store of value component (of money) finally gets separated from the movements of fiat. Under that system they can play whatever balancing games they like with currency without screwing the savers (ref. FOFOA's dilemma).

I'm increasingly of the opinion there will be no uncontrolled collapse. Nature abhors a vacuum, so basically whatever balancing act is needed to keep a level keel on this boat, will manifest itself regardless of what anyone wants and I think this is what we're seeing now. And like you, I would prefer a lesser degree of gold revaluation if it is an alternative to the ultimate hyperinflation of the USD.

The irony of course is that part of this natural equilibrium mechanic is the free market, and that process is still bound and gagged in the cellar - even more so when more levers are pulled.

In short, I fully agree that the planners and movers and shakers are not stupid. In fact they're smart enough to get someone else to pay the bill. Business as usual in other words (pour me another beer:).

GM Jenkins said...

they are milking our wealth whilst achieving their goals of stability. Neat trick really

Yes, exactly. JdA has described a truly evolved parasite.

The modern banking elite are the herpes virus of humanity ... they head straight for the ganglia, hiding out of sight out of mind, battening on brain, their grotesque faces only coming out in times of stress, as pustulent sores on the body politic's prick: "You want to get rid of us? Go ahead and try! You'll have to give yourself a lobotomy first!"